Have you bought or sold a home in the last five years? If so, you might be carrying a little something into today’s market called recency bias — and it could be messing with your expectations.
Recency bias is when we assume the way things were is the way they still are. And in real estate, that can be dangerous. Let’s break it down for buyers and sellers in the Greater Fredericksburg region.
Buyers: Is Every Home Still a Multiple-Offer Bidding War?
If you bought a home between 2020–2023, chances are you lived through the real estate equivalent of the Hunger Games: waived contingencies, 10 offers on the first day, and homes selling 10’s of thousands over list price before you could blink.
Fast-forward to 2025, and while multiple-offer scenarios still happen, and at certain times of the year become frequent, they are not the rule anymore.
- In fact, in the Greater Fredericksburg market this year, there have only been 3 weeks where more homes went under contract than came onto the market.
- That’s a dramatic shift compared to the frenzied pace of the past five years.
So, should you brace for competition? Yes, sometimes. But should you automatically run away the moment your agent mentions “other interest”? Not necessarily. Every listing has its own story, and blanket assumptions can cause you to miss opportunities.
Sellers: Is Every Home Still Flying Off the Market Over Asking?
If you’re a seller, recency bias works the other way. You’ve probably heard the stories at block parties: “My neighbor sold in a weekend with 15 offers over list price.” And yes, that did happen — a lot — in recent years.
But in today’s market:
- Not every home sells that way.
- Inventory, location, price point, condition, and presentation all make a difference.
- It’s no longer about just throwing a sign in the yard and waiting for a bidding frenzy.
Homes still sell quickly and for strong prices (sometimes still with multiple offers), but the strategy behind the sale matters more than ever.
Why Representation Matters Now More Than Ever
Here’s the truth: who you have represent you matters more now than it has in quite some time.
- If your Realtor isn’t touching a wide range of inventory — different price points, neighborhoods, and home types — they may be leaning on their “feelings” or what they heard on the news instead of real, on-the-ground data.
- At Porch & Stable Realty and ACT & Associates, we track local market data every single week. We know the numbers, the neighborhoods, and the trends because we’re in it every day.
That’s the difference between acting on emotion and acting on facts.
The Takeaway: Don’t Let Yesterday’s Market Cloud Today’s Decisions
Yes, bidding wars still happen. Yes, some homes still sell for over asking. But no — it’s not every time. The market in 2025 is more nuanced, and that means buyers and sellers need an agent who knows how to navigate the current conditions, not the headlines from years past.
So, if you’re buying or selling in Fredericksburg, Stafford, Spotsylvania, or beyond — don’t let recency bias steer the ship. Let Porch & Stable Realty and Amy Cherry Taylor & Associates guide you with the experience, data, and boutique strategy to help you win in today’s market.
👉 Ready to talk about buying or selling in 2025? Reach out to us at Porch & Stable Realty | ACT & Associates and let’s ACT on your goals with confidence.
